LIMA, OH (WLIO) - As Christmas nears, will there be a White Christmas this year? Also, are White Christmases becoming more uncommon as the years roll? Meteorologist Conner Prince dives into the science!
Many are dreaming of a White Christmas! However, what does the science say about west-central Ohio experiencing that magical blanket of snow on Christmas day?
The official definition of a White Christmas here at the National Weather Service is going to be a snowpack that's already on the ground of 1 inch or more at 7 a.m. in the morning on Christmas Day," explained Kyle Brown, National Weather Service of Northern Indiana meteorologist.
The climatology states that for this area we have about a 38% chance of seeing a White Christmas. A big component to long range winter weather forecasting, including in determining White Christmas probabilities, is what state the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, known as "ENSO", is in as El Niño, La Niña, or an ENSO neutral state has implications.
"This year with the El Niño pattern, the forecast is calling for drier-than-normal winter months, and so of course, that's going to play into December, Christmas Day. Looking at the last few years, as you may recall, we had the triple dip La Niña, so we had the three La Niña winters in a row, and two of those three winters, ending in 2022, did, indeed, have a White Christmas," said Brown.
Unfortunately for snow lovers, the chances of a White Christmas this year are looking unfavorable.
"Recently, where it's been dry and rather warm... I mean, highs in the 50s and whatnot, you know, we are going to be leaning towards warmer-than-normal Christmas at this juncture," stated Brown.
A topic of conversation lately has been whether or not White Christmases are becoming more infrequent in west-central Ohio. After sifting through 72 years of data at the climate site in Pandora, there are some interesting trends to note.
"It does seem that over the last couple of decades, there has been that decline in the chance for the White Christmas. Now, one thing that we could perhaps link to is that, you know, overall, for the Pandora, Ohio and that Northwest Ohio Climate Region as a whole, December temperatures are on a warming trend," added Brown.
While a snowy Christmas is unlikely, it's important to remember that the bulk of impactful winter weather typically affects west-central Ohio in January and February.
